White Christmas Statistics 2026: 50 Facts on Odds, Snow and Climate

Harriet Ashdown · Published October 7, 2026

Everyone knows the song. Far fewer people know the odds.

For most Americans a white Christmas is the exception, not the rule. It depends on where you live and on how you count.

This page collects the most reliable numbers: the official definition, the chances in cities and regions, nationwide snow cover, the climate trend and the story of the song. Every figure links to its source. Travel, food, movies and the rest of the season are in our Christmas in numbers.

Most figures come from local National Weather Service offices. The climate background is explained at Climate.gov.

White Christmas at a glance

1 inchof snow on the ground on December 25 is the official bar¹

38%of the Lower 48 is typically snow covered on Christmas Day²

13%chance of a white Christmas in New York City in any given year³

50mcopies sold of Bing Crosby's White Christmas, the best-selling single⁴

Contents:

What counts as a white Christmas
Where the odds are best
The Midwest and the Rockies
Big coastal cities and long odds
Christmas weather records
Snow cover across the Lower 48
Is the white Christmas disappearing
The song that made the white Christmas famous
What the numbers mean for businesses
My take
FAQ
Sources

What counts as a white Christmas

1. One inch of snow on the ground is the official bar

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information define a white Christmas as a snow depth of at least 1 inch observed on December 25. The snow does not have to fall on Christmas itself.¹

2. The reading is taken in the morning

The National Weather Service office for northern Indiana defines a white Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 am local time on Christmas Day.⁵

3. Old snow counts, a dusting does not

Snow from an earlier storm counts, as long as at least 1 inch is still on the ground on December 25. A lighter dusting does not make the cut.⁶

4. The national odds map uses about 15,000 stations

NOAA's white Christmas probabilities come from the 1991 to 2020 Climate Normals, the latest three-decade averages from approximately 15,000 weather stations.⁷

5. The darkest map areas mean odds of 10% or less

On the NOAA Climate.gov map, probabilities run from 10% in the darkest gray areas to 90% in the white-shaded areas. The agency warns that conditions in any single year can differ widely.⁸

6. Climate Central found enough data for 183 of 247 cities

For its 2024 analysis of 247 cities, Climate Central had enough data to calculate white Christmas odds for 183. For another 64 it used the nearest station.⁹

Where the odds are best

7. Alaska, the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes lead

Climate Central ranks Anchorage, Fairbanks, Marquette (Michigan), Duluth (Minnesota), Presque Isle (Maine), Bozeman (Montana), Wausau (Wisconsin) and Minot (North Dakota) at the top for historical odds.⁹

8. Fairbanks had snow on the ground in all 50 years studied

A Cornell climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center examined 50 years of weather data and found at least 1 inch of snow on Christmas Day in Fairbanks, Alaska, in every one of them.¹⁰

9. Idaho, Minnesota, Maine and upstate New York stand out

NCEI lists most of Idaho, Minnesota, Maine and upstate New York, plus the Rockies, the Sierra Nevada and the Allegheny Mountains, among the areas with high white Christmas odds.⁷

10. Crested Butte has a near certain white Christmas

NCEI points to Crested Butte, Colorado, as one of a handful of weather stations with a nearly 100% historical probability.⁷

11. Three Northeast spots at 80% or better

Using 1970 to 2019 data, the Northeast Regional Climate Center put Pinkham Notch, New Hampshire, at 91%, Caribou, Maine, at 90% and Watertown, New York, at 80%.¹¹

12. The Twin Cities see snow on the ground about 71% of the time

According to the National Weather Service, a white Christmas happens in the Twin Cities about 71% of the time over more than 120 years of snow depth measurements.¹²

13. Rochester, New York, has a 56% chance

The National Weather Service in Buffalo puts the chance of a white Christmas in Rochester at 56%, based on snow depth records that begin in 1926.¹³

The Midwest and the Rockies

14. Chicago: 34% today, 41% over the long run

The National Weather Service in Chicago lists a white Christmas probability of 34% for the 1991 to 2020 normals and 41% for the full record since 1884.¹⁴

15. Detroit: a 34.7% chance

The National Weather Service in Detroit gives a probability of 34.7% for at least 1 inch of snow on the ground, based on the 1991 to 2020 normals.¹⁵

16. Illinois splits into three zones

The Illinois State Climatologist puts northern Illinois at 40 to 60%, central Illinois at 20 to 40% and southern Illinois at 0 to 20%.¹⁶

17. South Bend 43%, Fort Wayne 38%

For 1900 to 2022, the National Weather Service in northern Indiana found at least 1 inch of snow on Christmas morning in 43% of years in South Bend and 38% in Fort Wayne.⁵

18. One in four Christmases has 3 inches in South Bend

In the same record, South Bend had at least 3 inches of snow on the ground in 25% of years, at least 6 inches in 16% and at least 12 inches in 2%.⁵

19. Denver: 37% over 126 years, 40% in the last 30

Denver had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on 46 of 126 Christmas Days since 1900 (37%). In the most recent 30 years the share is 40%.¹⁷

20. Measurable snowfall on Christmas Day is rarer than snow cover

Measurable snow actually fell on Denver on Christmas Day in 14% of years (20 of 144 since 1882).¹⁷

21. Alamosa leads southern Colorado at 43%

The National Weather Service in Pueblo lists the odds of at least 1 inch on the ground at 43% in Alamosa, 26% in Colorado Springs and 18% in Pueblo.¹⁸

Big coastal cities and long odds

22. New York City: about 13% in a given year

A report on New York's 2024 white Christmas puts the chance for the city at 13% in any given year.³

23. Central Park waited 15 years for 2024

Central Park recorded 1 inch of snow at 7 am on Christmas morning in 2024, the first white Christmas in New York City in 15 years. The previous one in 2009 had 2 inches.³

24. Boston: about 30% according to the weather service

A meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Norton says Boston has about a 30% chance of a white Christmas in any given year. Its last one was in 2009, with about 4 inches.¹⁹

25. An older count puts Boston at one year in five

CBS Boston reported that Boston has averaged a fairly steady 20%, or one year in five, since the late 1800s. The figure depends on the period and the station used.²⁰

26. Seattle: 5% at Sea-Tac, 4% downtown

NOAA calculates a 5% probability for Sea-Tac Airport and 4% for downtown Seattle.²¹

27. Seattle had snow on the ground in 1965, 2008 and 2017

At Sea-Tac, snow lay on the ground on Christmas Day in 1965 (4 inches), 1990 (1 inch), 2008 (4 inches) and 2017 (2 inches).²¹

Christmas weather records

28. Chicago had 17 inches on the ground in 1951

Chicago's deepest Christmas snow cover was 17 inches in 1951. The snowiest Christmas Day was 1950, with 5.1 inches of new snow.¹⁴

29. Minneapolis hit 20 inches in 1983

The deepest snow cover on a Twin Cities Christmas is 20 inches, set in 1983. The coldest Christmas high was minus 9 degrees F in 1996.¹²

30. Denver's record: 24 inches after the 1982 blizzard

The greatest snow depth recorded in Denver on Christmas Day is 24 inches, after the Christmas Eve blizzard of 1982. The heaviest Christmas Day snowfall was 7.8 inches in 2007.¹⁷ Winter weather also shows up as a source of strain in our Christmas stress and loneliness statistics.

31. Detroit measured 13 inches in 1951

Detroit's maximum Christmas snow depth is 13 inches (1951), and its snowiest Christmas Day brought 7.9 inches in 1915. The record spans 151 years, from 1874 to 2025.¹⁵

32. New York's snowiest Christmas was 1909

Central Park recorded 7 inches of snow on Christmas Day 1909, ahead of 6.5 inches in 1902. The warmest Christmas high was 66 degrees F in 2015.²²

Snow cover across the Lower 48

33. On average, 38% of the Lower 48 is snow covered

Historically about 38% of the contiguous United States has at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas, based on NOAA data since 2003.²

34. From 63% in 2009 to 17.6% in 2023

Since 2003 the share of the Lower 48 covered by snow on Christmas Day has ranged from a high of 63% in 2009 to a low of 17.6% in 2023.²

35. Only 18% was snow covered on December 23, 2025

NOAA data showed just 18% of the Lower 48 snow covered on December 23, 2025, down from more than 45% a few weeks earlier, according to an AccuWeather meteorologist.²

36. Christmas 2025 ended at 26%

On Christmas 2025 about 26% of the country had snow on the ground, well below the historical average, with most of it in the Midwest, the mountain West, upstate New York and northern New England.²³

Is the white Christmas disappearing

37. NOAA warns against reading a trend into two Normals

Climate.gov notes that comparing two adjacent Normals periods is not the most direct way to look for climate change, because the periods overlap by two decades.⁸

38. Christmas week snow cover has not fallen nationwide

Comparing 1966 to 1989 with 1990 to 2016, Rutgers snow lab data showed a modest increase in snow extent during Christmas week for the country as a whole, with large local differences.²⁴

39. A single week is a weak climate signal

The same analysis stresses that singling out one winter week is not especially meaningful as an indicator of long-term climate change. Spring snow cover is the stronger signal.²⁴

40. North American snow cover shrinks by 2,083 square miles a year

Between 1972 and 2023, the average extent of snow cover in North America decreased by about 2,083 square miles per year, while winter snow cover stayed fairly steady.²⁵

41. The snow season is nearly two weeks shorter

From 1972 to 2013 the US snow cover season became shorter by nearly two weeks on average, mostly because the last spring snow date moved 19 days earlier.²⁵

42. Over 80% of stations see less of their precipitation as snow

More than 80% of stations in the contiguous 48 states saw a decline in the share of precipitation falling as snow from 1949 to 2024.²⁶

43. 57% of long-term stations show less total snowfall

Of 419 weather stations in the contiguous 48 states, 57% showed a decline in total snowfall from 1930 to 2007. Some Great Lakes areas saw modest increases.²⁶

The song that made the white Christmas famous

44. Irving Berlin wrote it around 1940

Irving Berlin wrote White Christmas in late 1939 or early 1940, and it premiered in the film Holiday Inn in 1942.²⁷

45. Crosby recorded it in 18 minutes

Bing Crosby recorded White Christmas in just 18 minutes on May 29, 1942, at Radio Recorders in Los Angeles.²⁸

46. No. 1 for 11 weeks in 1942

The original recording spent 11 weeks at number one on the Billboard charts in 1942. It returned to the top in December 1943 and 1944.²⁸

47. The best-selling single of all time

Guinness World Records lists Crosby's White Christmas as the best-selling physical single, with 50 million copies sold worldwide. The runner-up, Candle in the Wind 1997, sold 33 million.⁴

48. Cover versions push sales past 100 million

Combined sales across all artists' versions exceed 100 million copies, and more than 500 versions exist in multiple languages.²⁸

49. The master wore out, so Crosby re-recorded it

On March 19, 1947, a new version was recorded because the 1942 master had been damaged by frequent use. That is the version most heard on the radio today.²⁸

50. It won an Oscar and entered the National Recording Registry

White Christmas won the Academy Award for Best Original Song at the 15th Academy Awards. The Library of Congress added the recording to its National Recording Registry in 2002.²⁸

What the numbers mean for businesses

Two things stand out. First, a white Christmas is a shared wish, not a reliable event. In most big cities the odds are well below half, so the feeling people want has to come from somewhere else, such as the tree in the living room (see our Christmas tree statistics). Second, the weather is a good reason to bring a little winter to the screen, whether or not it snows outside. How the daily December countdown has become a market of its own is covered in our advent calendar statistics.

A digital advent calendar can do that for companies: 24 doors with quizzes, coupons or short videos, sent as a link. See how it works for customers, as a marketing campaign or for employees.

My take

Harriet Ashdown

I grew up wishing for snow and mostly got rain. The song did the rest. It made a weather condition feel like a promise.

I think that is why the topic never fades. People do not really want inches of snow. They want the quiet, the light and the feeling of being home.

You can plan for that even when the forecast says no. A small daily ritual does more for the mood than a snowfall ever could.

Frequently asked questions

What counts as a white Christmas?

At least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25, according to NOAA. The snow can be left over from an earlier storm. Many weather service offices check at 7 am local time.

How often does a white Christmas happen in the US?

It depends on the place. Historically about 38% of the Lower 48 is snow covered on Christmas Day, but that ranges from 17.6% in 2023 to 63% in 2009. In 2025 it was about 26%.

Which US cities are most likely to have a white Christmas?

Climate Central lists Anchorage, Fairbanks, Marquette, Duluth, Presque Isle, Bozeman, Wausau and Minot at the top. NCEI also points to Crested Butte, Colorado, with a nearly 100% historical probability.

What are the odds in New York, Chicago and Seattle?

About 13% in New York City in a given year, 34% in Chicago (1991 to 2020 normals) and 5% at Seattle-Tacoma Airport.

Is climate change ending the white Christmas?

The picture is mixed. North American snow cover has shrunk by about 2,083 square miles a year since 1972, mostly in spring. Christmas week alone is a weak signal, NOAA says.

What is the best-selling Christmas single?

Bing Crosby's White Christmas, written by Irving Berlin. Guinness World Records lists 50 million copies sold, making it the best-selling physical single ever.

Where can I use these statistics?

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